Rome (Agenzia Fides) - "The Russians are coming," Western observers have been repeating for some time, referring to the arrival of mercenaries from the former "Wagner Group" in the Sahel, particularly in the states where military juntas were installed after coups that expelled French and Western troops in general.
It started with Mali, followed by Burkina Faso and finally Niger. All countries that have asked the French, other European (as in the case of Mali) and US military to close their bases and leave their territory. In their place, more to ensure the security of the new rulers than to protect the population from the jihadists, have come the fighters of the "Wagner Group", now renamed "Afrikansky Korpus".
The security situation in these countries, however, remains precarious, the various jihadist groups continue to strike; On 25 June, 20 Nigerien soldiers were ambushed and one civilian killed in Tillabery in the south-west of the country, in the border triangle between Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, where the activities of the three countries' jihadist groups are concentrated.
The clashes were even more serious on 11 June in Burkina Faso, where the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Support Group for Islam and Muslims (GSIM) attacked the north-eastern town of Mansila and its military command, near the border with Niger. The number of casualties among the military was not made public, but it appears to have been very high, leading to rumors of unrest among the troops dissatisfied with the actions of the military junta against the jihadists, which had come to power on the promise of a resolute fight against the jihadists. The head of the military junta denied the rumors of a military uprising and stopped the national broadcasts of the French channel TV5, which had reported on it. A few days later, the first planes carrying Russian military trainers and their equipment are said to have landed.
It seems that the Russians have definitely set foot in the Sahel, but there are at least two regimes that do not want to put their security in Moscow's hands alone. This is the case in the first African country where Wagner mercenaries have settled, the Central African Republic. Here, the Russian mercenaries have developed a business model that combines the offer of protection and military support with trade and mining concessions. But to counter their interference, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra invited a Rwandan military contingent and a private US military company to the country (see Fides, 16/3/2024).
Niger recently hosted the first contingent of the "Africa Corps" at base 201 in Niamey, where some US military personnel are still stationed. The latter must leave the country by mid-September and also abandon the drone base in Agadez, which cost $100 million and is considered strategically important for controlling jihadist movements in the Sahel. But the Nigerien junta (which has not yet expelled the small Italian contingent) has opened the door to another power that is very active in Africa: Turkey. The latter has at least one large private military company, Sadat, which recruits Syrian mercenaries in the areas occupied by the Turkish army in the north and northwest of Syria. The Syrian mercenaries contracted by the Turkish company will be sent to the Nigerien side of the "tri-border area". Ankara, which has already sold military equipment to Niger and Burkina Faso, including the famous Bayraktar drones, thus seems to offer itself as a counterweight to Russian influence.
The states of the region thus have the opportunity to choose between the various powers interested in the region, leaning on one or the other to obtain the best possible conditions. The Russians are there, but they are not alone. (L.M.) (Agenzia Fides, 6/7/2024)