AFRICA/SOMALIA - Tensions over recent supplies of arms to Somalia and Puntland

Mogadishu (Agenzia Fides) - There is an intense verbal exchange between Somalia, Somaliland and Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa over the recent arms shipments to the region.
On September 20, the government in Mogadishu condemned "illegal arms shipments" by the government in Addis Ababa to Puntland, an autonomous Somali region that has its own institutions but, unlike Somaliland, a region in the north that declared its independence from Mogadishu in 1991, has so far not expressed any intention of separating from the rest of Somalia.
On January 1, 2024, Somaliland signed a naval agreement with Ethiopia (see Fides, 3/1/2024), which has been heavily criticized by Mogadishu because it recognizes Somaliland as an independent state in exchange for the transfer of a naval base and control of a stretch of Ethiopian coast. The government in Addis Ababa thus becomes the great protector of Somaliland, including militarily, which increases Mogadishu's fears about Somalia's territorial integrity.
These fears are now being exacerbated by Ethiopia's arms shipments to Puntland. The authorities of the autonomous region, while recognizing the authorities in Mogadishu, are at odds with them because they claim that they have not received the necessary help from Mogadishu to fight the jihadists in their territory, groups linked to Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State. The Ethiopian government now seems to be interfering in the tensions between Puntland and Somalia in order to increase its room for maneuver in the region.
Just a few days after the government in Mogadishu adopted this stance, protests broke out in Addis Ababa over the arrival of Egyptian military supplies in Somalia intended for the local armed forces. This is the second shipment of weapons from Cairo as part of the military agreement signed in August between Egypt and Somalia (see Fides, 30/8/2024).
According to the Ethiopian Foreign Minister, the supply of weapons by "external forces" risks "exacerbating the fragile security situation". There is also a risk that these weapons "fall into the hands of terrorists in Somalia". "The uncontrolled proliferation of weapons in an already fragile environment increases the risk of an arms race, in which different groups will likely seek to increase their stockpiles to protect their own interests," says Somaliland.
Tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia regarding the management of Nile waters are now escalating in Somalia, with the Somali government, backed by Cairo (but Mogadishu also has important military agreements with Turkey which is currently trying to mediate, see Fides 2/7/2024)) trying to fuel internal tensions in the neighbor (see Fides, 17/9/2024). (L.M.) (Agenzia Fides, 24/9/2024)

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