Information service of the Pontifical Mission Societies since 1927
Harare (Agenzia Fides) - Zimbabwe is in a state of tension as it prepares for presidential, legislative, and local elections to take place Saturday, March 29. The police and armed forces are on maximum alert for fear of demonstrations by the opposition that expects there to be voting fraud and violations.
There are three candidates for president: the incumbent Rober Mugabe, who has been in office since 1980; Morgan Tsvangirai, historic leader of the opposition and leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC); and Simba Makoni, former Finance Minister. A mixed political representation that, however, according to local and international observers, is conditioned by the many government interferences and by the weakness of the opposition that appears to be divided (see Fides 6/3/2008).
The surprise has been the appearance of the “third party” Makoni, who has been joined by the dissident forces from Mugabe’s line who are from among the presidential party (Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front, ZANU-PF), in the army, and in the state bureaucracy. In efforts to control the dissidence in the military, the government tripled their salary, a measure that runs the risk of lasting very little time, as the country’s inflation rates skyrocket to over 100,000%.
The fear of fraud, on the part of the opposition, is due to the failed mediation effort of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to reach an agreement guaranteeing free and honest elections. Furthermore, only representatives from countries friendly to the Mugabe regime were invited to participate.
While the opposition fears fraud and violence from the government, the regime lies in fear of organized protests similar to the post-election violence in Kenya. Their worry is increased by the presence of Makoni, whose supporters in the armed forces could decide to confront those who have remained faithful to Mugabe.
The eve of elections has been marked by attacks on militia and headquarters of the MDC, as well as by civil rights activists. In addition to the armed forces, the regime has also deployed party militia groups called the “Green Bombers,” mostly active in rural areas where they selectively distribute food supplies, that have placed fear among the opposition and prevent the progress of their electoral campaign.
Tsvangirai’s own party is not immune to violence either. In recent months, there have been violent confrontations among the various components of MDC, due to government intelligence agents had infiltrated among their ranks. Although, it is also true that the party’s leaders are seen by many of its followers to be incapable of maintaining internal unity and of developing a strategy that assures a better future for the country. This situation could work in favor of Makoni, given that the former Finance Minister is supported by the national and international economic sectors, who recall how he developed a strategy of finance reform that was rejected by Mugabe. Many voters of MDC, especially in urban areas, who have been discouraged at the sight of the internal disputes, may vote for Makoni, who could turn out to be the best candidate for heading up a post-Mugabe (who is already 84 years old) transition phase. (LM) (Agenzia Fides 28/3/2008; righe 41, parole 519)
